Yes, it’s true that most are still unsure about what the economy or stock market will do over the next six months, but when looking at a 20-year timeline, the outlook is much more clear. Trends are lining up to indicate that real estate may be the buying opportunity of the decade.
According to an article on Time’s Moneyland, there are three different treads that are aligning that figure to produce a major home-price boom over the next 20 years:
1. The Economic Cycle. Admittedly, the current recession is far worse than a typical cyclical downturn. Nonetheless, the economy has grown for seven straight quarters. It is possible that there could be a double-dip recession – triggered perhaps by the default of Greece or Portugal. But the worst damage to the U.S. economy appears to be behind us. Home prices are largely driven by demand, which depends on the number of people working, their prospects for salary increases and the availability of credit for mortgages. All three of those things are bad right now, but they typically lag the economic cycle for GDP. Once the economy finally recovers, the factors that drive housing demand will follow.
2. The Real Estate Bust. The collapse in housing prices has destroyed confidence among home buyers and left perhaps a quarter of all properties worth less than the mortgages they carry. But the experts see prices within 5% to 10% of a bottom. Once the process is done, prices will have been knocked all the way down. As a general rule, the worse the crash in a market, the longer the subsequent recovery can last, because there is nowhere to go but up.
3. The Inflation Outlook. The combination of a cyclical economic recovery and the end of the housing bust is by itself reason enough to buy real estate. But in my view, there is an even more compelling long-term argument – the near-inevitability of higher inflation, as I have argued before. Basically, if the U.S. continued building up debt at its present rate, the country would eventually end up where Greece is today. The reason that won’t happen is that while Greece’s debt is in euros, a currency it can’t control, U.S. debt is in dollars. The U.S. will always be able to pay its debts because the Federal Reserve and the Treasury can simply work together to create more dollars (what people used to call “printing money” in the days before electronic funds).
