Category — National Housing Market

The number of foreclosures dropped 2% in April from a year ago.  This is the first annual decrease that has taken place in more than five years according to a report released by RealtyTrac last week.

33,837 properties were foreclosed in April, which represents a 9% decrease from March.  According to the report, that equals about one in every 387 homes facing foreclosure during the month.

In April housing starts rose 41 percent over last year, this is the biggest year over year gain since 1994.

Home builder confidence levels have risen to the highest level in two and a half years. The Housing Market Index increased three points to 22 which is the highest since August of 2007.  Wells Fargo also reported that this is the second straight month that we have seen a gain.

Coldwell Banker CEO Jim Gillespie appeared on CNBC yesterday to discuss the current state of the housing market.  The topics of discussion included the amount of foreclosures in the nation and the inventory levels of different markets.

Here’s a link to the segment:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1493082948

According to Market Watch, the pending home sales index rose a seasonally adjusted 5.3% in March, and was up 21.1% compared with a year earlier.

The Southern region reported  the largest gain in sales contracts for the month of March. The South rose 12.7%, 1.9% in the West and 1.2% in the Midwest. The Northeast was the only region to post a decline at 3.3%.

Mike Larson, a real estate expert, recently took some tough questions about the current state of the housing market.  The key takeaway from the series of questions is that you cannot believe everything that you hear about in the media.  The housing market is a complicated system, but there are signs it could be on the mend.  Below are some of the questions that were asked of Mike and his response: 

Q. Don’t you know that millions of foreclosures are hitting the market? How the heck can you have a recovery when that’s the case?

A. Do I know that? Of course I do! I’d be a pretty lousy analyst if I didn’t. But you know what? Many of those properties are being ABSORBED. They’re being priced aggressively, and they’re being snapped up quickly. Some are ending up in the hands of investors. But many are going to traditional buyers who can actually afford to buy homes again thanks to the collapse in prices.

Here’s something else that isn’t being talked about much:

While late-stage delinquencies (90+ days) and loans in some stage of foreclosure have piled up like crazy, there is some evidence of stabilization in early-stage delinquencies. That’s not just in mortgages, by the way, but also things like credit cards.

So yes, we’re dealing with a mountain of distressed inventory. But it’s not getting bigger, and leading indicators suggest we’ll see improvement before long.

Q. Banks aren’t making loans any more. Nobody can get a mortgage!

A. This is another media canard. Yes, standards are much tighter than they were a few years ago. That’s a good thing. But the tightening trend has long since stopped getting worse. If anything, conditions are starting to gradually ease again.

Case in point: The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey on Bank Lending Practices. This quarterly survey chronicles how willing banks are to make various types of loans, including home mortgages.

In the worst depths of the housing crisis (Q3 2008), a net 74 percent of the institutions surveyed were tightening standards on traditional home mortgages. It truly was almost impossible to get a mortgage.

Lending standards are starting to loosen.

But that number has shrunk steadily since then — to just 13.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, according to Fed data. That’s the best reading going all the way back to the end of 2006! I’m also seeing a bit of easing in jumbo loan qualifying standards. Even the mortgage securitization market is starting to stir again after lying dormant for many, many months.

Q. What about “shadow inventory?”

Aren’t banks sitting on a mountain of unsold homes? When they dump that junk on the market, it’ll crater everything!

A. Yes, shadow inventory is out there. Banks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and other parties do have a lot of property that they own outright. Other homes are still nominally owned by borrowers. But those borrowers are way behind on payments. By all rights, these properties should be quickly seized, then sold to new buyers. And if that happened, then prices would crater.

But that just ain’t going to happen! The government has made it entirely clear that they will NOT force those parties to liquidate.

Banking regulators are going to let some of the inventory fester while they look the other way. Policymakers are also going to continually add more goodies to keep lenders from foreclosing … and add more sweeteners to lower borrower payments via the loan modification process.

Heck, some homes are being foreclosed, then rented back to troubled borrowers!

So yes, there could be a few million “shadow” homes to deal with. But they’ll be dealt with over time — parceled out into the market rather than dumped all at once. This will keep the recovery from being a vigorous one, but will also avoid a fresh sizable NEW crash in home prices.

Q. You’re on record predicting a surge in interest rates. Won’t that pummel housing?

A. Later on, higher rates will cause problems for housing. But not right now. Mitigating factors should offset the impact of higher rates during the first phase of the rate climb.

Remember, rates are rising in conjunction with an improvement in the global and domestic economies. Job losses are easing and consumer confidence is improving somewhat. Those forces will likely compensate for higher financing costs — until rates rise fast enough and far enough to overpower them.

Think I’m nuts?

Then consider this: Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates surged 33 percent from 6.49 percent in October 1998 to 8.64 percent in May 2000. During that same time, home sales plunged, right? Wrong! Existing single-family home sales held steady at around 4.57 million units. New home sales dipped a barely noticeable 4 percent.

Bottom line: When rates rise far enough and fast enough to win the battle with improving economic conditions, THEN you want to worry. But not until then. Until then, focus on what I keep harping on — the FIRST-ROUND impact of rising rates, such as plunging bond prices and how to profit from them.

Oh and in case you’re wondering, within a day of the first contract on my house falling through, I had multiple new showings. A replacements contract was signed less than a week later.

A recent survey leads industry experts to believe that the end of 2010 Home Buyer Tax Credits on April 30 in not likely to put a damper on the rebound of the housing market. 

It seems that many consumers are realizing the incredible benefits of buying a home in the current housing market and that conditions have not been this favorable for buyers for quite some time. 

The survey was created by Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services, Inc and conducted between April 15-29, 2010.  The survey was comleted by 1000 Americans whose ages varied from 25-64 with an average household income of at least $35,000.   A startling 90% of the survey respondants said that the tax credits have helped the housing market tremendously.  65% believed that the tax credit ending will have little impact on the housing market overall. 

Some concerns that were identified by these consumers were the fact that they felt that home prices and mortgage rates would rise in the next year. In fact, 46% think that the price of real estate in their local area will rise within the next year.   The two main concerns from these consumers were: rising mortgage rates and unemployment.

The general opinion based on the responses of the survey was that owning a home is still considered to be a valuable investment to most consumers. So despite that the fact that the tax credits will expire, it seems consumers still view conditions as favorable for the purchase of real estate.

Home Prices in February posted the first year over year increase in four years. 

The average home price increased 0 .6% from last year according to a 20 city index. Out of the 20 cities that were indexed, nine showed an increase.  “The homebuyer tax credit, available until the end of April, is the likely cause for these encouraging numbers,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P.

 Another positive sign for the housing market is the fact that housing starts are also on the rise in much of the coutry.  Many experts in the building industry expect housing prices to remain stable for awhile. Folks in the construction business have begun to regain some confidence lately with both new home sales and applications for building permits also posting gains.

With the amount of inventory in the real estate market at record highs, there are many homeowners that want to sell their houses for various reasons.  Mike Larson, an expert in the real estate industry has some insight on selling real estate since he recently placed his home on the market.  Here are three key points that he feels everyone should analyze before selling their home. 

1. Closely study local conditions before choosing a listing price and marketing strategy.  The amount of inventory in Peoria, Illinois dosent really matter if your selling a home in South Florida.

• In Mike Larson’s Case, he found that in his local areas he notced that local inventories were falling and that bargain hunters were the results of this as they capitalized on deals that were offered in the area.

1. Make sure you get an agent who knows what he or she is doing — and who is realistic about local market conditions. Even today, there are plenty of pie-in-the-sky agents who won’t be realistic with their sellers. They’re perfectly content to leave overpriced properties on the market for months and months, either because they’re incompetent or they’re afraid to offend their sellers.

• Based on actual conditions, not what you hope for.  In Mike’s case, he expressed his wishes upfront and set some expectations for his agent.

1. Forget about sentimentality. You have to look at any home sale as a business transaction. Too many people get wrapped up in their own personal sentiments about their homes, and that just gets in the way of actually selling.

• It is important to be realistic when selling your home.  Mike’s neighbor was not pleased when he priced his house according to market conditions, his response was “tough luck”
• Mike also made another interesting point: “I was able to undercut competitors because I “bought smart” in the first place. I signed the purchase contract in 2003, before the housing market got too nutty. I would have rented if my search began in 2005 when valuations were totally in the stratosphere.”

These are vital considerations to make when you feel that it is the time to sell your home.  It is also important to work closely with a real estate professional who is in tune with the local market.

According to CNN.com, new home sales jumped in March at the fastest single-month rate in 47 years!

It seems buyers are busy making purchases ahead of the tax credit that’s set to expire.

New-home sales rose 26.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 last month, compared to an upwardly revised annual rate of 324,000 in February, the Census Bureau said. The increase ended a four-month streak of declines.

The March sales were the strongest since last July, and the percentage gain was the biggest on a month-over-month basis since a 31% gain in March 1963.  The increase was seen in every region of the U.S.; with the South leading the way with a 43.5% increase.    

Keep an eye out for the Coldwell Banker Buyer Bonus set to start at the beginning of May.