Category Archives: National Housing Market

Positive Signs Abound for Housing

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Via REALTORMag.com…

The first quarter of 2012 was the best first quarter for real estate in five years, and pending contracts suggest that the second quarter of 2012 will be the best second quarter in five years, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said this morning at the Residential Economic Update during the NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.

Moreover, he said the second half of this year could be even better than the first, in part because of continued increases in rental costs and record affordability of homes. “Renters are getting squeezed, and they don’t want to rent anymore,” Yun explained. “This could be the year we see the release of pent-up demand.”

Home prices have been skipping along the bottom for about a year now, Yun said, a trend that has drawn investors into the market. These investors have helped housing through a couple of difficult years and partly mitigated the dysfunctional mortgage market.

“Right now is the time to buy low,” he said. “Investors are coming in to take advantage. Second homes started to recover nicely last year because of investors.”

However, home values are poised for a rebound as more traditional buyers move back into the market, Yun said. In fact, this has already started to happen in areas such as Phoenix and Miami, which have seen year-over-year (March 2011 to March 2012) double-digit percentage increases in home prices.

As real estate improves, consumer psychology around home ownership will change, he added. Coupled with the recent — if relatively modest — job growth and stock market gains, conditions are right for a sustained housing recovery.

Read full article here.

The Bidding Wars are Back

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Homebuyers have recently been caught off guard by a new development in the real estate market… bidding wars are back this spring sales season.

This recent surge of bidding wars is a result of supply shortages, unlike the wars of the past “go-go years.”

According to the Wall Street Journal’s recent article, the competitive bidding hasn’t been producing huge price increases or leaving sells with large profits. The wars, causes by small inventory, provide the evidence that housing demand is looking up after years of decline.

“An index that measures the number of contracts signed to purchase previously owned homes rose in March to its highest level in nearly two years, up 12.8% from a year ago and 4.1% from February, the National Association of Realtors reported on Thursday.

‘We very much believe we’ve hit bottom,’ said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of a research firm, who was among the first to warn of a downturn seven years ago. Earlier this week, she raised her home-price forecast for the year, calling for a 1% annual gain, up from a 1% decline.” Read Full Article. 

Warren Buffet says “I’d Buy Up a Couple Hundred Thousand’ Homes”

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Via REALTORMag…

Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO, said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” recently that he’d “buy up a couple hundred thousand” single-family homes if it was practical.

Buffett said that’s because he believes purchasing a home with ultra-low mortgage rates and holding it for the long-term has become a better investment than stocks right now.

“Housing will come back, you can be sure of that,” Buffett wrote in his annual letter to shareholders recently.

Buffett forecasts an increase in household formations, as more people who moved in with their parents or family members during the recession look to move out and get their own home soon.

“People may postpone hitching up during uncertain times, but eventually hormones take over. And while ‘doubling-up” may be the initial reaction of some during a recession, living with in-laws can quickly lose its allure,” Buffett said.

Buffett said the recovery in the housing market could vary quite a bit among local housing markets, however. He did not provide a timeline of when he expected a full housing recovery, admitting that his prediction last year that a housing recovery will take shape within the year turned out to be “dead wrong.”

Builders are Feeling More Optimistic

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REALTORMag reports that for the fifth straight month, builders are more optimistic in the single-family home market. Here’s what they had to say…

Signs are improving in the new-home market and builders are feeling more optimistic about where the real estate market is heading, after coming off last year’s worst year on record for new home construction. 

For the fifth consecutive month, builder confidence in the single-family home market increased in February, reaching its highest level in four years.

“Builder confidence has doubled since September,” says Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders. “Given the recent improvements in new home starts and the increasing number of markets included in the NAHB/First American Improving Market Index, this consistency suggests that the housing market is moving toward more sustainable growth.” 

While the jumps in builder confidence have been an encouraging sign for the industry, housing experts warn that confidence is still historically low, and that foreclosures, low appraisals, and more stringent credit standards continue to hamper the new-home market’s full recovery. 

By Melissa Dittmann Tracey, REALTOR® Magazine Daily News

 

Sales Stir Hope for the Housing Market

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December marked the third straight month of previously owned home sales, bringing the supply of homes listed for sale to the lowest level since 2006. We are now seeing a glimmer of hope that the housing market could be starting to climb out of a profound downturn, according to an article posted by The Wall Street Journal.

Existing-home sales increased 5% in December from a month earlier, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million units, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist, called the December gain “a good finish to a very tough year.”

Many economists had predicted that 2011 would be the worst year on record for existing home sales, but the year ended with 4.26 million sales, about 1.6% higher than the 4.19 million existing homes sold in 2010. Market-watchers attributed this to a minor surge in sales at year-end, driven by historically low mortgage rates, falling prices, active investor-buyers and increasing consumer confidence.

Still, economists cautioned that it’s too early to assume that the market is recovering. “These were positive numbers, but that doesn’t mean the market is getting better. Lenders have been trying to get rid of distressed homes, and investors been snapping them up,” said Patrick Newport, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. According to the Realtors report, investors purchased 21% of all homes in December, up from 19% in November.

The inventory of homes for sale declined in December to 2.38 million, the equivalent of a 6.2-month supply, assuming the pace of sales remain at December’s level. A six-month supply of homes typically is considered healthy, although NAR’s numbers don’t take into account the “shadow inventory” of homes that are either in foreclosure or on bank balance sheets and not yet listed for sale.

Read full article here

Optimism Builds in the Housing Market

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“Several recent indicators for the real estate industry are pointing to a market that is on the mend and entering recovery mode.

Housing experts’ predictions for the new year tend to center around a market stabilizing before entering a gradual, albeit very slow, recovery. However, the tone is more upbeat than it has been in years for the housing market.”

Via REALTORMag.com..

Here are a few of the signs that are showing the market moving in a more positive direction:

Home sales: Existing home sales are expected to increase 12 percent this year, following a 2 percent jump last year, Moody’s Analytics predicts. The signs are already showing: In November, pending home sales — a gauge for future home buying — reached its highest level in 19 months, the National Association of REALTORS® reported. (Read more.)

New-home market: Coming off of what could be considered the worst year for new-home building ever recorded, the sector is expected to bounce back this year. New-home sales and starts were already showing a rebound in the last few months of 2011. Moody’s is predicting that single-family housing starts will increase 37 percent this year, and new-home sales will soar 74 percent.

Housing stocks: Investors are starting to get optimistic about the possibility of a rebound too, and are turning to home builder stocks. These equities have recently outperformed the broader stock market and the S&P 1500 homebuilding index has increased 38 percent since mid-October, USA Today reports.

Consumer confidence: With mortgage rates at record lows and housing affordability high, about 71 percent of Americans say now is a good time to purchase a home. Also, more Americans are optimistic that home prices will rise over the next year — about 26 percent say prices will rise in 2012, an increase of 4 percent over the last survey, according to Fannie Mae’s December National Housing Survey.

Some Good Signs for the Real Estate Market

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“Sales ticked up for existing homes and new homes, several real estate market indicators revealed last week, pointing to a housing market that may finally be entering recovery mode.”

Via RealtorMag…

In the most recent report, the Census Bureau reported that the new-home market continued its rebound, with sales of new houses once again inching up last month. New-home sales rose 1.6 percent from October to November to an annualized rate of 315,000, and sales were up nearly 10 percent compared to November 2010.

The median sales price of a new home in November was $214,100, the Census Bureau reported, and the inventory of new houses nationwide decreased to a six-month supply at the current sales pace.

“Inventories of new homes are very low: There’s nothing on the shelf, so any increase in new home sales will translate directly into new housing starts,” Bob Denk, senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders, told CNNMoney. “That means putting people back to work.”

Other recent good news for the housing market: November sales of existing homes increased 12 percent year-over-year, new-home building starts were up nearly 21 percent year-over-year, andmortgage rates reached new record lows last week, pushing housing affordability even higher.

Source: “New Home Sales Edge Up,” CNNMoney (Dec. 23, 2011)

Residential Housing Ready to Awaken?

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“After half a decade of withering sales and slumping prices, there are strong and diverse signs that the single-family housing market is poised for a rebound.”

Via Yahoo! Finance…

In some metropolitan areas, the market has bottomed, with both sales and prices on the rise and foreclosures on the decline.

This contrarian – and largely overlooked – thesis flies in the face of the persistent gloom that has nagged the industry since 2007, when the subprime crisis flared.

Industry analysts and players cite a number of reasons – some traditional (employment), others unique to the post-credit bubble era (foreclosures)  - for the long-awaited sea change. An analysis of industry and government data also support the forecast.

“It has become increasingly apparent to us that the pieces for a housing rebound next year are beginning to fall into place,” declared Barclays Capital analyst Stephen Kim in a recent note to investors.

Proponents admit that the nascent rebound could easily be derailed, but stress that after years of government efforts to support sales and prices as well as the volatile impact of foreclosures, the market has regained a measure of normalcy.

“With the exception of really hard-hit markets, the vast majority is ready to turn around,” adds Jerry Howard, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, NAHB. “The Washington, D.C., area is not only ripe for recovery, they need to start building units.”

Read full Article here.

 

 

 

 

Why Aren’t More Talking About This?

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Prices have mostly stabilized, so why aren’t more talking about it?

Via RealtorMag…

An improving job picture and prices stabilizing for non-distressed homes are all signs that point to a housing recovery taking shape, Barclays Capital analyst Stephen Kim told HousingWire.

“In the absence of a government home buyer incentives, prices for non-distressed home sales have stabilized for almost a year,” Kim said. “This is the most important trend in the housing industry right now, and we are amazed at how little attention it has been getting from the media and the street. This stability on the part of nondistressed prices has occurred despite a very high share of distressed activity and continued declines in overall prices.”

The key to when the housing recovery will largely take off “depends primarily on when these first-time buyers decide it is safe to buy a house,” Kim told HousingWire.

Real Estate as a Hedge against Inflation

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Via KCMBlog…

“We haven’t heard a lot about inflation recently. However, prices have started to creep upward over the last year.” Here are a few categories that increased from November 2010 to November 2011:

  • Food at home – up 6.2%
  • Housing fuels and utilities – up 3.5%
  • Transportation – up 9.2%

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) took an historic look at the impact of inflation. Here are some inflation numbers over the past 30 years:

NAR then looked at inflation moving forward over the next thirty years.

Bottom line, “We can lock in the housing costs of our primary residences and vacation homes at all time lows if we purchase today. Either would be a great hedge against future inflation.”