The Seaside Report
The main economic driver on the Outer Banks is real estate. Yet, the OBX does not have an in-depth report analyzing the full spectrum of real estate on the Outer Banks – residential & commercial sales, distressed properties (foreclosures & bank-owned), and current vacation rental trends.
To meet this need for a detailed analysis of the current Outer Banks real estate market, including the often ignored but incredibly important vacation rental market, we have created the monthly “Seaside Report.”
We have combined the forces of both sides of our business – Outer Banks real estate sales with Coldwell Banker Seaside Realty & OBX vacation rentals with Seaside Vacations – to bring you the first report to offer a comprehensive view of the OBX real estate market – real estate sales & vacation rentals.
Please keep in mind that there is a lag time between “real time” and data collection/reporting. As a result, the information will be as close to “real time” as possible, but the data will be based in the past by a couple weeks at least. I will indicate the corresponding date/timeliness for each section of data.
As always, we appreciate your input, and we encourage you to leave your comments below. We are happy to address any questions you may have, and we are always interested in suggestions for improvement.
Outer Banks Real Estate Sales
(Data Source: OBAR)
January 2012 OBX MLS Data:
2012 is off to a great start for Outer Banks real estate. January is typically a slow period for real estate, but the OBX market has been anything but slow in January 2012.
- The total number of sales in January was up 17% over January 2011.
- Under Contracts were up by 38% from January 2011.
- January sales ran the gamut from $20k (land) to $1.6 million (KDH oceanfront).
YTD Sales Residential
- Up 13% (94 units vs 83 units)
- Land – Up 13% (17 units vs 15 units)
- Commercial – up 100% (2 units vs 1 unit)
YTD Under Contract
- Residential – Up 32% (144 units vs 109 units)
- Land – Up 43% (33 units vs 23 units)
- Commercial – Up 500% (6 units vs 1 unit)
Distressed Sales: (Distressed = Bank Owned and Short Sales)
Of the 347 new listings in January, 22 were potential short sales & 42 were bank owned. Sold distressed sales data for the month:
| |
Total Sold
|
Bank Owned
|
Short Sale
|
% Distressed
|
| January |
113
|
20
|
16
|
32%
|
4th Quarter 2011 OBX MLS Data
Summary – Overall, 2011 ended on a flat note with total sales down by approximately 1% and under contract listings down by 1%. However, there has been a notable decline in the median sale price of single family homes and condos. When comparing the yearly median sale prices there has been a 6 % decline in the price for single family homes and a 10% decline in the price for condominiums. Additionally, when looking at the 5 year trend in median sales prices there has been a 24% decline in single family home prices and a 41% decline in condominiums.
|
Median Sales Price
|
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
| Single Family Homes |
$416,833
|
$383,599
|
$352,607
|
$319,500
|
$334,795
|
$316,269
|
| Percent Change |
-10%
|
-8%
|
-8%
|
-9%
|
5%
|
-6%
|
| Condos |
$335,642
|
$278,291
|
$325,260
|
$278,252
|
$218,031
|
$195,968
|
| Percent Change |
8%
|
-17%
|
17%
|
-22%
|
-22%
|
-10%
|
2011 Sales End-of-Year Breakdown
- Residential: Down 3% (1315 units vs. 1374 units)
- Land: Up 15% (323 units vs. 282 units)
- Commercial: Up 92% (25 units vs. 13 units)
Year-End Sale Price Range: The best selling residential properties fell into the $200K to $299K range.
| Price Range |
$0 – 99K |
$100 – 199K |
$200 – 299K |
$300 – 399K |
$400 – 499K |
$500 – 599K |
$600 – 699K |
$800 – 999K |
> $1M |
| Units Sold |
81 |
302 |
328 |
219 |
117 |
88 |
88 |
49 |
55 |
| Average Days on Market |
168 |
191 |
208 |
267 |
270 |
264 |
260 |
302 |
308 |
Inventory: The majority of the current active residential listings fall in the following price ranges:
| Price Range |
Number of Listings
|
Price Range
|
Number of Listings
|
| $1 – $99,999K |
73
|
$600K – $699K
|
109
|
| $100K – $199K |
230
|
$700K – $799K
|
51
|
| $200 – $299K |
330
|
$800K – $899K
|
58
|
| $300K – $399K |
324
|
$900K – $999K
|
38
|
| $400K – $499K |
217
|
> $1M
|
121
|
| $500K – $599K |
173
|
|
|
Distressed Property (Residential): Distressed = Bank Owned and Short Sales
Distressed property currently makes up 14% of the active inventory in the MLS and the sale of distressed property accounts for 31% of all residential property sales. Overall, the sale of properties listed as short sales rose 27% and the sale of bank owned properties declined 22%; however, total distressed property sales were down by 8% from 2010.
Seaside Report: Distressed Property Market Overview – Q4 2011
|
|
Average
|
Median
|
Days On Market
|
|
Q4 11
|
$290,550
|
$205,000
|
225
|
|
Q3 11
|
$306,648
|
$239,950
|
231
|
| % Change |
-5.25%
|
-14.57%
|
-2.60%
|
Market Highlights – Sold Properties
Single Family Homes, January 1 – December 31, 2011
- Duck continues to have the lowest percentage of distressed property sales, ending the year with a total of 22%
- Hatteras Island has the largest percentage of distressed property sales with 55% of all sold single family homes being either bank owned or short sales
- Although the Outer Banks had a slight decrease in single family homes sold for 2011 (1159 vs. 1193) the amount of sales over $1 million dollars increased. There were 46 homes sold for over $1 million this year compared with 39 last year. Of the 46 sold, 9 homes sold for over $2 Million (compared to 4 in 2010)
- Distressed sales accounted for 37% of all residential (single family & condos) sales in 2011, which was the same as the previous year.
Outer Banks Vacation Rental Market
(Data Source: NAVIS GeoAnalytics)
Average Booking Window
Legend: 2011; 2012
This graph demonstrates the average number of days between booking and check-in date. This graph is summarized by month of booking, rather than month of stay.
For example, the reservations made at this time of year are about 170 days in advance of their check-in date. The takeaway message is that guests should book early for summer months in order to reserve the most desirable homes and weeks – about 170 days in advance at this time of year.
Seaside Report: Average Booking Window – January 2012
Seaside Report: Average Booking Window – YoY Variance – January 2012
Average Length of Stay
Legend: 2011; 2012
The Length of Stay graph illustrates the average number of days between check-in date and check-out date of reservations, summarized by check-in month.
As would be expected for the Outer Banks, the average stay is seven days + for the summer months and varies in the shoulder season. A strong takeaway here is that full weeks are a must for the summer months, but Spring and Fall offer great opportunities for shorter stays and discounted rates, while maintaining the great benefits of gorgeous weather, empty beaches, and ample attractions and activities.
Seaside Report: Average Length of Stay – January 2012
Seaside Report: Average Length of Stay – YoY Variance – January 2012
Average Stay Value
Legend: 2011; 2012
The Stay Value graph illustrates the average revenue actualized or projected for reservations, summarized by check-in month.
The clear message with this graph is that demand is high and supply is low during the summer months, and as a result, prices are driven higher during the summer months. As mentioned above, Spring and Fall offer great opportunities for shorter stays and discounted rates, while maintaining the great benefits of gorgeous weather, empty beaches, and ample attractions and activities.
Seaside Report: Average Stay Value – January 2012
Seaside Report: Average Stay Value – YoY Variance – January 2011
Bookings
Legend: 2011; 2012
The Bookings graph illustrates the number of reservations actualized or on the books, summarized by check-in month. This graph gives a good view of the “strength” of the reservations over the previous year. Reservations are up, which indicates that early reservations are wise and prices should remain constant. Although, at this point, July is slightly under-performing in comparison to 2011. This will be a trend to keep an eye on.
Seaside Report: Bookings – January 2012
Seaside Report: Bookings – YoY Variance – January 2012
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